When a craft beer becomes really popular, does it still appear to craft beer drinkers?
This is the "curse of awareness" that limits the upside for investing in Sam Adams maker Boston Beer, according to UBS' Kaumil Gajrawala in a note that initiates coverage at "neutral."
With 230 new craft brewers last year and 700+ more in planning, it becomes even harder for a mainstream craft brew like Sam Adams to compete. Gajrawala says the "brewery bubble" to burst eventually, but until then it will hurt Boston Beer.
Boston Beer has held ground by offering seasonal varieties. We wonder if they couldn't buy up some smaller breweries and count on consumers not to realize.
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